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Weaver looking like a fringe first-rounder

Posted by Jeff Nusser on April 29, 2008

Now that the deadline has passed for underclassmen to declare for the draft, both the 2008-09 college seasons and the 2008 NBA Draft are starting to take shape. This is still pretty preliminary, as a number of players who declared could still come back for their senior seasons, but we’re starting to get an idea of what “experts” think of where these guys will get drafted.

If you’re curious, Kyle Weaver is looking like a fringe first-rounder, according to DraftExpress.com and NBADraft.net. I’d love to tell you what Chad Ford at ESPN.com thinks, since he generally seems to be a little more in tune with what teams actually might do, but all of his content is Insider. If anyone has access to that info, post it in the comments. There are other ones out there, too, but most of them have yet to reflect the guys that actually didn’t declare.

These projections can fluctuate pretty wildly in the next couple of months, based both off of performances at pre-draft camps and team needs/preferences, but it tells you what you need to know about how people are viewing Weaver’s skill set: He’s a winner who projects to point guard at the NBA level with his smarts, passing ability and defensive length. More or less the kind of guy that can help out a team that doesn’t need him to carry the mail, the kind of team found at the bottom of the first round.

I’m no draft expert, but that would seem to be the high end for Weaver, barring a spectacular showing at a pre-draft camp. The guys in front of him on the board are guys not likely to head back to college thanks to their potential, and of course, we all know what a premium the NBA places on potential in the draft over actual proven abilities.

Getting into the first round would be huge for Weaver. The difference between the 30th overall pick and the 31st? Two years guaranteed at just under $1 million each with team options for the third and fourth years vs. the prospect of a non-guaranteed contract.

As for Derrick Low? He had some well-publicized difficulties at the Portsmouth Invitational draft camp, and isn’t on anyone’s radar as even a second round pick at the moment. But that could change, too, with a good showing at another camp.

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5 Responses to “Weaver looking like a fringe first-rounder”

  1. Ptowncoug said

    Some is selling a bag of beans for Buddinger. I would take the bad Lopez, Ryan Anderson, Jefferson, Weaver and many more over that guy. No way is he the 15th best player in this draft. Not even close.
    I have seen Love remain at 13th. Still shocked by this. He will give teams serious fits on how to guard him. Can you imagine Oden at the 5 and Love at the 4. Wow!

  2. Nuss said

    If you look at those lists, this draft is just exceedingly deep at the top, perhaps the reason Love has fallen. Those top nine or 10 guys are all very good players. If love waits one more year — which he still could do — he’s probably a top 5 pick with no Beasleys or Roses in 2009. Somebody is going to get a steal — I certainly would take him over O.J. Mayo, Brook Lopez or Eric Gordon. He’s never going to be a franchise player, but whichever team picks him is never going to regret it, either. The dude is bust proof.

  3. Ptowncoug said

    Look what Gasol is doing for the Lakers. I know Love isn’t European, but he can sorta of shoot the three already and now will be able to really perfect his outside shooting FT.
    He is too heady of a bball player. My Lakers should trade up for him.
    I agree the talent is deep this year, but man at 13, I think that is too low for this guy.

  4. johnnycougar said

    I know this is probably more than you asked for, but I hope you won’t mind!

    First, the caveats: It doesn’t say on Ford’s Top 100 when he last updated them (his last column was 4/27, so that’s a good guess). He also assumes everyone who declared for the draft is fair game, regardless of their final decision – Mbah a Moute, Anderson, Davon Jefferson, and Danny Green are all on the list as “declared but not hiring an agent” just for starters, so I would put less stock in the actual number from 1 to 100 and more stock in the evaluations:

    “60. Kyle Weaver SG 6-6 185 Washington State
    Draft Projection: Second round to undrafted

    Positives: Slashing, athletic combo guard who has a very good feel for the game. High basketball IQ. Ultimate team player. Excellent, tenacious defender. His long arms and quickness allow him to really disrupt the passing lanes. Has improved his three point shooting tremendously this season.

    Negatives: His shooting is still suspect. He doesn’t have much of a mid range game and before this year he wasn’t hitting threes. Doesn’t seem to want to shoot the ball. Averages only around eight shots a game.

    Summary: Offensively he’s got a long way to go, but his basketball IQ is so high and his defense so good, more than one scout has projected him as a potential Bruce Bowen type player in the pros. He’s a likely second round selection depending on how he plays in the pre-draft camps.”

    Now, ranked ahead of him are some I flat out don’t think should be, including Hairston, Jamont Gordon, Mbah a Moute, DeVon Hardin, and JJ Hickson. Another reason he is lower than those other sites I suppose is that some teams don’t mind taking “projects” and developing them over a couple years if they feel their roster is pretty much set. However, you have to think that in terms of NBA-readiness Weaver is a borderline first rounder. Ford did have Weaver as the seventh senior in “most likely to crack the first round” which included several players already projected to be 1st rounders.

    I think that if Weaver goes early 2nd round, it’s because a team thinks he’ll help them right away. If he goes late first round, a good team thinks he’s special and wants to lock him up, and I think that’s the best case scenario since he’ll probably have time to keep working on his jump shot and add some muscle. My honest feeling is that he’ll go mid to late second round to a decent team who may not need him immediately but will play him if he is ready. Maybe someone like Philly, Portland, Golden State, Atlanta, or Chicago.

  5. Nuss said

    I think it’s worth noting that Ford’s ranking isn’t any kind of a projection of where a guy will go; it’s merely a straight ranking. How he ranks them, he never really says. For example, I’ve seen Euro Danilo Gallinari going as high as No. 5, yet Ford has him ranked 13th. So much of where a guy goes in the draft has to do with needs, especially once you get past the lottery.

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