GAME THREAD: No. 6 WSU at No. 24 Arizona State
Posted by Nuss on January 26, 2008
TV: FSN
The over/under on hearing ASU referred to as “this year’s Washington State” from the amateurish FSN announcers is probably about 30 seconds. And the comparisons seem viable to the naked eye, what with the Devils playing a similar tempo to the Cougs (60.5 possessions per game for ASU vs. 59.8 for WSU), employing a hard-nosed halfcourt defense and having a similar “out-of-nowhere” season similar to what the Cougs experienced last year.
But really, that’s where the comparisons ought to end. ASU is led by an explosive freshman, James Harden. He leads the Devils in minutes, points and steals, and is second in rebounding and assists. Most remarkable, I think, is that he’s shooting 54 percent from the field — as a 6-foot-5 guard. Pretty incredible. Limiting him doesn’t necessarily equal success for opponents — as Xavier found out — but it sure helps. He supposedly has a groin issue right now, but if you look at that picture, that sure doesn’t look like a guy that’s lost any explosion.
One thing Harden is extremely skilled at (try not to cringe) is getting to the free throw line. In fact, thanks to Harden and big man Jeff Pendergraph, the Devils are 14th in the country in free throw rate. This will likely be the difference in the game.
As we all know, it pretty much begins and ends with defense with the Cougs, and there are two things that bear a strong correlation to the Cougs’ success in defensive efficiency: Effective field goal percentage (no surprise, given their vulnerability to the 3-point shot) and free throw rate. Simply, the more often their opponent goes to the line, the worse their defense. Don’t believe me? The Cougs’ two worst defensive performances were those in which they gave up the highest free throw rate (at UCLA and at Arizona), and the next two worst free throw rates given up were two games that were a lot closer than they should have been (Boise State and Air Force).
The other key tonight? Keeping ASU off the glass. The Sun Devils’ offense absolutely thrives off offensive rebounds. Three of their four worst offensive rebounding games resulted in three of their four losses. The bad news is that the Cougs are not a particularly good rebounding team. We hammered Robbie Cowgill how poorly he’s played as of late; the Cougars absolute must have a performance from him today on the order of what he did against Gonzaga, when he was active and all over the defensive glass.
If the Cougs can keep ASU away from the free throw line — which also will mean no foul trouble for Baynes — and grab the lion’s share of defensive rebounds, they’ll win.
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