TV: FSN
The Cougs resume their Pac-10 slate tonight against a USC team that figures to be pretty desperate after an 0-2 swing through the Bay Area last weekend.
The Trojans have to be considered one of the disappointments of the college basketball season so far, ballyhooed for the arrival of superstar recruit O.J. Mayo then mowed under by an overambitious schedule that featured No. 3 Kansas and No. 2 Memphis in consecutive games.
Quality teams seemed to have figured out a winning formula for beating USC that bears a striking resemblance to the Jordan Rules of the mid-to-late ’80s: Allow Mayo to shoot for whatever he wants while locking down his teammates. The result is that in their last four losses — to Kansas, Memphis, Cal and Stanford, all good defensive teams with the exception of Cal — the offense has gone stagnant as Mayo has shot the Trojans out of games (see exhibit 1, right). Check out the offensive efficiency numbers in the wins versus the losses.
Given that, I think tonight is going to be a fascinating game for a couple of reasons. First, Tim Floyd is way too good of a coach to allow opponents to keep beating his team the same way — he’s going to devise a gameplan that tries to involve more players and movement in the offense. However, you know the Cougs are going to try to make the exact opposite happen, funneling the ball to Mayo and then counting on the Pac-10’s best lockdown defender to harass him into another poor shooting night.
One guy Floyd probably will try to get going is Taj Gibson. He’s taken quite a step back this year, but was a force in the two games last year with his length and activity around the basket. In all likelihood, it will be a race to see which team’s big man stays out of foul trouble as both Gibson and Aron Baynes have a tendency to rack them up. That probably will be advantage, Cougars, since Baynes will be the aggressor against the lighter Gibson — provided he doesn’t lower his shoulder and get called for a couple of early offensive fouls.
Honestly, I envision a game that ends up looking a lot like last weekend’s game against the Huskies. USC is a very good defensive team — 15th nationally in defensive efficiency — and for all of the focus on Mayo’s offense, it’s his defensive game that is most NBA ready right now. The problem is, he can’t guard everyone, and I expect strong bounceback games from Taylor Rochestie and Derrick Low.
I would not be shocked if both teams end up under 50 points, and I expect the Cougs to edge out the Trojans at the end.
