McCarthy Athletic Center (Spokane), 8 p.m. PT
TV: ESPNU
Well I had this really big writeup planning the game planned, but life got in the way today, so here are some quick thoughts on the game to kick off this game thread.
First, as I mentioned below, I think the Cougs need this game worse than Gonzaga does, but I fear that the opening of the game will actually reflect the opposite, based off the way WSU has opened games this year and the way the Zags typically play at home. This is not a game where the Cougs will want to get into one of those first half holes. The raucous home court combined with the most talented opponent they’ve played won’t make a Baylor-esque comeback very likely.
The great news for you, fans, is that while Gonzaga is a talented squad, the Zags’ talent is not concentrated in the area that gives the Cougs the most trouble — namely 3-point shooting. If Josh Heytvelt were healthy, that might be a different story, but he’s still out for a while. And while Jeremy Pargo (right) and Matt Bouldin are very good guards, neither chucks it up with abandon from long range. Bouldin is a serviceable shooter out there (44 percent) but he averages less than four 3 attempts a game, and Pargo is hitting just 21 percent of his 3’s. Austin Daye, 5-for-10 for the season, is the only other Bulldog over 40 percent.
Looking for more good news? The one team Gonzaga lost to, Texas Tech, is the one team on the Zags’ schedule that plays a similar hard-nosed man-to-man defensive scheme. They had 19 turnovers in that game in getting soundly beaten by the Red Raiders.
The key to the game might well be who wins the battle of the fouls. Both teams make trips to the foul line a regular habit, as both are in the top 15 in the country in free throw rate (what’s that?). However, foul trouble has plagued the Cougs lately, and their depth does not match Gonzaga’s. A tightly-called game is advantage Gonzaga, because if it’s called tight, it’s hard to imagine the Cougs will get the benefit of the doubt in that zoo they call K2.
My take on the outcome? Because Gonzaga can slow it down or run, this won’t be an impose-their-will kind of game for the Cougs. What it will come down to is: 1) Can Gonzaga make WSU pay for its pack defense by hitting the limited 3s it will take? and 2) Can Aron Baynes and Robbie Cowgill stay on the floor — especially staying away from adrenaline fouls in the early moments of the contest?
I look for a game in the high-60s — one that the Cougs will win, 69-67.
I’ll be over at a friend’s house watching the game — thank goodness for his satellite provider! — so I think I’ll be able to get on the computer for a few moments here and there to post some thoughts. Please leave yours as you watch the game if not at a bar!
